Courier service Expected Contribution per Lead
Lead value = close rate × (sale revenue − variable cost)
Gather completed route logs, fuel receipts and delivery records. Include mileage, dispatch time, and handling. The starting figures are examples. Replace them with your own records.
Formula and worked example
Lead value = close rate × (sale revenue − variable cost)
| Input | Example |
|---|---|
| Lead-to-sale rate | 20 % |
| Average first delivery revenue | 1,000 |
| Variable first-sale cost | 650 |
| Calculated result | 70 per lead |
Choose reliable inputs
Compare route time, vehicle cost, delivery density and collection timing. For this courier service calculation, use completed route logs, fuel receipts and delivery records and a consistent definition of one delivery.
- Mileage: include the portion belonging to this delivery or reporting period, and record where the value came from.
- Dispatch time: include the portion belonging to this delivery or reporting period, and record where the value came from.
- Handling: include the portion belonging to this delivery or reporting period, and record where the value came from.
Use the same currency for every money input. Do not mix weekly costs with monthly revenue, or count the same expense in both an itemised cost and allocated overhead.
How much can I afford to pay for a lead?
Expected contribution is a ceiling before overhead and desired profit, not a recommended bid. Averages can hide low-quality leads.
Excludes repeat purchases, fixed costs, and acquisition spend.
What if this input changes?
If lead-to-sale rate rises by 10%, this example changes by 7 per lead. This shows the effect of one change; it does not predict what will happen.
Open the calculator, save your baseline, then change the input supported by the least reliable estimate in your records. Compare both scenarios before committing to a price or capacity promise.