Coffee shop Expected Contribution per Lead
Lead value = close rate × (sale revenue − variable cost)
Gather recipe sheets, supplier invoices and stock counts. Include ingredients, staffing, and occupancy cost. The starting figures are examples. Replace them with your own records.
Formula and worked example
Lead value = close rate × (sale revenue − variable cost)
| Input | Example |
|---|---|
| Lead-to-sale rate | 20 % |
| Average first sale revenue | 1,000 |
| Variable first-sale cost | 650 |
| Calculated result | 70 per lead |
Choose reliable inputs
Track purchased quantities, usable yield, labour and waste before deciding on a selling price. For this coffee shop calculation, use recipe sheets, supplier invoices and stock counts and a consistent definition of one sale.
- Ingredients: include the portion belonging to this sale or reporting period, and record where the value came from.
- Staffing: include the portion belonging to this sale or reporting period, and record where the value came from.
- Occupancy cost: include the portion belonging to this sale or reporting period, and record where the value came from.
Use the same currency for every money input. Do not mix weekly costs with monthly revenue, or count the same expense in both an itemised cost and allocated overhead.
How much can I afford to pay for a lead?
Expected contribution is a ceiling before overhead and desired profit, not a recommended bid. Averages can hide low-quality leads.
Excludes repeat purchases, fixed costs, and acquisition spend.
What if this input changes?
If lead-to-sale rate rises by 10%, this example changes by 7 per lead. This shows the effect of one change; it does not predict what will happen.
Open the calculator, save your baseline, then change the input supported by the least reliable estimate in your records. Compare both scenarios before committing to a price or capacity promise.